Deradicalising China's Indian Ocean hegemony should be India's strategic maritime gambit

In an era marked by the growing influence of global powers, a subtle yet pivotal shift is occurring in the Indian Ocean, which has far-reaching implications for balance of power in the region. As the world's attention remains riveted on China's ever-expanding presence in Africa, a less conspicuous but equally significant development has quietly unfolded – India's establishment of a naval base on the remote Agaléga islands of Mauritius.

The Agaléga islands, nestled in the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean, have, for decades, remained an untouched sanctuary, far removed from the hustle and bustle of modern development. With a population of a mere 300 residents, these islands have subsisted through traditional practices, primarily reliant on fishing and coconut cultivation. Yet, beneath this tranquil facade, a seismic transformation has been set in motion.

India's decision to establish a naval base on Agaléga is not merely another addition to its military infrastructure; it is a calculated response to the growing maritime presence of China in the Indian Ocean. Over the past 25 years, China has been systematically expanding its footprint in this strategically vital region, giving rise to concerns among Indian security experts. China's singular overseas military base in Djibouti, coupled with its ongoing development of ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, presents a series of significant maritime challenges, including piracy, smuggling and terrorism.

In this complex geopolitical context, the Agaléga base represents a pivotal outpost for India. It not only provides a robust platform for surveillance and anti-submarine warfare operations but also serves to bolster maritime patrols over the crucial Mozambique Channel. Moreover, the base offers a commanding vantage point for monitoring the intricate web of shipping routes around southern Africa.

Samuel Bashfield, a distinguished research officer at the Australian National University's prestigious National Security College, has aptly emphasized that this base is poised to "cement India's presence in the southwest Indian Ocean and facilitate its power projection aspirations in this region."

While the official narrative portrays the facilities as a development initiative designed to enhance sea and air connectivity and support the Mauritius Coast Guard, their strategic significance cannot be overstated. Once fully operational, these facilities will not only substantially augment India's surveillance and maritime awareness capabilities but also provide a staging ground for more extensive maritime endeavours.

India's strategic outreach extends well beyond the naval base in Agaléga. New Delhi has consistently stood by the side of the Mauritius Coast Guard, offering equipment and expertise to fortify maritime security. Indian defence companies, notably the acclaimed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), have played a pivotal role in providing advanced equipment and technology to enhance maritime security, thus further strengthening the enduring partnership between India and Mauritius.

The geopolitical implications of India's strategic move are not confined to regional dynamics. They ripple across the broader rivalry between India and China in Africa, a continent that has emerged as a critical theater in the global balance of power. At the heart of this competition lies China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses an astounding 46 African nations. China's economic and military consolidation on the African continent has the potential to reshape global power dynamics, potentially eroding the dominance of the United States and relegating Europe to the sidelines of international affairs.

China's Djibouti naval base, while significant, is not the sole manifestation of its deep-rooted interests in Africa. Other African nations with substantial financial ties to Beijing, most notably Equatorial Guinea, also offer fertile ground for China to establish a military presence on the Atlantic. The precarious high levels of debt and economic dependency on China place these nations at a vulnerable crossroads, making them susceptible to the establishment of similar military installations.

Recent reports in The Wall Street Journal have suggested that Beijing is contemplating establishment of a permanent military installation in Equatorial Guinea. If this comes to fruition, beyond the strategic challenges posed by China's naval presence on the Atlantic, it heralds a new phase in China's Africa policy, promising a host of geopolitical consequences that extend far beyond the African continent.

China's extensive economic influence in Africa, buoyed by the presence of approximately 10,000 Chinese enterprises, forms the bedrock upon which its geopolitical manoeuvres stand. By extending its military presence on the continent, China has managed to avoid widespread international backlash, strategically capitalizing on its economic clout. Equatorial Guinea, with its high level of indebtedness to China, has presented Beijing with a unique opportunity to solidify a military foothold on the Atlantic.

Yet, it is not an isolated case; other African nations with comparable economic dependencies may soon witness the emergence of Chinese naval bases. The consolidation of pan-African security architecture under China's aegis in the long term could position the African continent as a forward base from which China might project power toward North America and Europe.

India's seemingly modest move in the Agaléga islands stands as a testament to the nation's unwavering commitment to safeguarding its interests in the region and to counterbalancing China's expanding influence. While the world's attention may be ensnared by China's grandiose initiatives, India's silent ascent in the Indian Ocean should not be underestimated.

In addition to the strategic significance of the Agaléga base, India's enduring engagement with Mauritius exemplifies its broader commitment to promoting maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Through initiatives such as the installation of radar surveillance stations and the supply of advanced equipment, India has consistently supported the Mauritius Coast Guard.

The establishment of a naval base on the remote Agaléga islands underscores India’s determination to counterbalance China's burgeoning influence in the Indian Ocean region while securing its own interests. Although India's approach may be subtle in contrast to China's grand designs, it is, without a doubt, a force that carries significant weight in the evolving power dynamics of the Indian Ocean.

As the global stage unfolds, India's quiet but purposeful ascent is not to be overlooked; it represents a strategic chess move that may well dictate the future of this pivotal region.

(The writer is a Public Policy Consultant. He writes on topics in institutional economics and takes longstanding interest in Maritime issues. The views are personal).